Morgan Rogers' Scoring Streak Fuels Villa's Improbable Title Charge

It was 60 days ago when the Villa attacker stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed as the Villa manager berated him for not reading a penetrating pass. During that period, as Villa failed to win in six, doubts remained if his performances were a sign or a cause of Villa's broader struggles.

“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”

The Manager's Celebration of Joy

On Sunday, however, the manager's outburst proved to be decidedly more positive. When the in-form star swept in his brace-sealing goal to reclaim the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician tore off his winter coat, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. Villa marched on to a 10th successive win and having failed to win any of their first six matches, now sit just three points off the leaders Arsenal.

Is This Team Legitimate Challengers?

That’s an exceptionally difficult question to resolve. Past precedent, the traditional standing of this institution, suggests not. Furthermore, they've rarely been entirely convincing this season, despite the fact the positive results have stacked up.

According to Opta, twice all season has the team posted an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a club that have strung together 10 in a row, Villa seem weirdly vulnerable – yet currently the margins are going in their favour.

The Winning Formula

The prevailing tactic seems to be to engage in a shootout with the opposition and wait for their talisman to bail them out with some clinical strikes. This was the case against Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and once more versus United.

His opener stemmed from an exquisite effort, bent precisely inside the post from the edge of the area. For his second acted as a somewhat messier replica of his first as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.

“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”

A Predictable Yet Lethal Tool

Can It Last?

Logic says not. During the latest victory, the opponents registered a greater number of attempts and more shots on target. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. The defence has been breached in all except one of those fixtures.

Regression to the mean could be the most significant challenge they have to face in the near future. The forward, almost certainly, will not continue to thrashing the football into the top corner indefinitely.

A Case for Belief

Maybe there exists a different scenario in which, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs may yet rediscover their best form.

  • Ollie Watkins may begin to scoring again.
  • Jadon Sancho could transform into the performer he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
  • The injured centre-backs are set to regain fitness, strengthening an occasionally vulnerable defence.

This could contain the possibility of a genuine bid, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on a single individual.

Enjoying the Ride

However, this is a surprise. Few believed Aston Villa would be in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt back in October, no one envisioned Rogers by the end of the year would be leading a title charge while establishing himself as a vital player for the national team.

This winning streak is to be savoured for the very reason that it appears so improbable. As the hero positioned himself before the Villa faithful after the match orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be loving the experience. As he deserves to. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.

Rebecca Lucas
Rebecca Lucas

Lena Vance is a seasoned sports analyst with over a decade of experience in betting strategies and statistical modeling.